A Stochastic Model for Occupancy-Related Random Variables in General-Acute Hospitals

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Abstract
A stochastic model for the behavior of the daily census in general-acute hospitals is presented. For any mix of elective and emergency patient day demand this model permits the computation of a complete set of measures of operating efficiency including expected overfill rate, percentage occupancy, waiting time for admission, waiting list length, and loss of emergency patients. This model extends previously developed models in important ways such as including the measurement of previously unquantified criteria and the inclusion of the elective-emergency patient mix as a parameter. With one exception published results of empirical field studies of the behavior of the daily census can be explained by this model and in no case are these results in contradiction of the model.

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