6.16 Mathematical models of transmission and control

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Abstract
The aim of this chapter is to show how simple mathematical models of the transmission of infectious agents within human communities can aid the interpretation of observed epidemiological trends, guide the collection of data towards further understanding, and help in the design of programmes for the control of infection and disease. The central theme is to improve understanding of the interplay between the variables that determine the typical course of infection within an individual and the variables that control the pattern of infection and disease within communities of people. This theme hinges on an understanding of the basic similarities and differences between particular infections in terms of the number of population variables (and consequent equations) needed for a sensible characterization of the system, the typical relations between the various rate parameters (such as birth, death, recovery, and transmission rates), and the form of expression that captures the essence of the transmission process.

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