Ten-Year Prognosis of Stroke and Risk Factors for Death in a Japanese Community

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Abstract
Background and Purpose— There have been very few population-based cohort studies of long-term prognosis and risk factors for death after stroke. We examined the 10-year prognosis, causes, and risk factors of death after stroke in a Japanese cohort. Methods— During a 26-year follow-up of a cohort of 1621 subjects ≥40 years of age, 333 subjects developed first-ever stroke and were prospectively followed up for 10 years after onset. During these 10-year follow-up periods, 268 of the 333 stroke patients died. Of those, 239 (89.2%) underwent autopsy. Results— The risk of death was greatest in the first year after first-stroke onset in both sexes (men, 40.3%; women, 43.7%). Thereafter, the survival curves decreased gradually, and risk of death reached 80.7% for men and 80.2% for women by the end of the 10-year follow-up. The 30-day case fatality rate was substantially greater in patients with cerebral hemorrhage (63.3%) or subarachnoid hemorrhage (58.6%) than in patients with cerebral infarction (9.0%). The risk of dying after the first stroke was twice the risk for stroke-free subjects. The most common cause of death was the index stroke in the first year. Thereafter, the impact of the first stroke gradually decreased, while that of recurrent stroke increased. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, lower body mass index, and hemorrhagic stroke were significant risk factors for death after stroke. Conclusions— Our findings suggest that the risk of death after first-ever stroke is high, in part because of the larger proportion of hemorrhagic stroke in Japanese relative to stroke victims in Western countries.