A comparison of adaptive structural forecasting methods for electricity sales

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Abstract
This paper presents the results of a study to determine whether new forecasting technologies might be of use to electric utilities for sales forecasting up to 3 years into the future. The methods considered included ordinary least squares on dynamic structural models, autocorrelated error models, adaptive variance and adaptive parameter models. Overall, the more adaptive models performed best, but most of the methods proved vastly superior to simple least squares models which do not take dynamics into account.

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