The Vulnerability of Lower Englishman River to Modelled Climate Change

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Abstract
It is generally accepted in scientific circles that the earth’s atmosphere is warming, and that this warming trend is projected to increase as a result of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, by the end of this century. Such warming will affect regional precipitation patterns and thus river hydrology. This study focuses on the effects of modelled regional climate change on the frequency and magnitude of flooding along the floodplain of the Englishman River on the east coast of central Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Using the results of a regional climate model (Reynolds, 2002), we found that there will be changes to the flood regime of the river. Peak annual flows may be 8% larger by 2020, 14% larger by 2050 and 17% larger by 2080. This means that an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flows is likely in the future. For example by 2020, the 15-year flood is expected to have a slightly greater magnitude than the current 20-year flood, and by 2080, the 10-year flood is expected have the same magnitude as the current 20-year flood. The changes in flood magnitudes will have significant impacts on people living on the floodplain. Large areas of the floodplain are currently occupied by houses, and much of the remaining area is zoned for further subdivisions. The current bankfull flood is predicted to increase, and for this to occur there will be a change in the morphology of the channel.

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