Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part III: Analysis of Global-Mean Response Using Simple Models

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Abstract
The roles of surface, atmospheric, and oceanic feedbacks in controlling the global-mean transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to increasing carbon dioxide are investigated. The analysis employs a four-box energy balance model and an oceanic box-diffusion model, both tuned to the simulated general circulation model response. The land-sea contrast in the surface warming is explained almost entirely by the shortwave radiative feedbacks associated with changes in cloud and surface albedo. The oceanic thermal inertia delays the response; however, the initial delay is enhanced by increases in Antarctic sea-ice cover, which substantially reduce the effective climate sensitivity of the model in the first half of the 75-year experiment. When driven by the observed anthropogenic greenhouse forcing from the pre-industrial period to present day, the energy balance model overestimates the warming observed over land. However, inclusion of the direct forcing due to anthropog... Abstract The roles of surface, atmospheric, and oceanic feedbacks in controlling the global-mean transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to increasing carbon dioxide are investigated. The analysis employs a four-box energy balance model and an oceanic box-diffusion model, both tuned to the simulated general circulation model response. The land-sea contrast in the surface warming is explained almost entirely by the shortwave radiative feedbacks associated with changes in cloud and surface albedo. The oceanic thermal inertia delays the response; however, the initial delay is enhanced by increases in Antarctic sea-ice cover, which substantially reduce the effective climate sensitivity of the model in the first half of the 75-year experiment. When driven by the observed anthropogenic greenhouse forcing from the pre-industrial period to present day, the energy balance model overestimates the warming observed over land. However, inclusion of the direct forcing due to anthropog...

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