Predicting coronary heart disease

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Abstract
The probability of the development of coronary heart disease can now be defined with considerable accuracy. The probability of the development of clinical disease in middle -aged men with various combinations of risk factors in the upper range is some -where between 1 and 2 chances in 5 within a 10-year period. When such men are compared with others in the lower ranges of these variables, their excessive risk is of the order of 3-fold to 10-fold, depending on the selection of predisposing factors and the choice of dividing points between "positive" and "negative" test results. Determining the need for preventive measures in a given individual has, therefore, become a matter of rational and quantitative assessment rather than a decision based on an informed and intelligent guess.