Prediction of cardiac risk in non-cardiac surgery

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Abstract
This prospective study was carried out to develop a model for the prediction of cardiac risk in non-cardiac surgery. Detailed data were collected concerning the preoperative status of 2609 consecutive patients, who were followed closely during the postoperative course. Fatal or life-threatening cardiac complications occurred in 68 patients (2.6%). By utilizing logistic regression, a model for prediction of cardiac risk was developed. The model contained six significant preoperative predictor variables: Congestive heart failure (with 3 degrees of severity); ischaemic heart disease (with 2 degrees of severity); diabetes mellitus; serumcreatinine above 013 mmol l−lemergency operation; and the type of operation (two categories) With this model it seems possible to discriminate between patients with very different levels of cardiac risk.