Predicting the Behavior of Predevelopment Landowners on the Urban Fringe

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Abstract
If the planner had a simple predictive technique to assess the likelihood that a parcel in nonurban use on the urban fringe would be sold during the next few years, he would be in a better position to anticipate the location of new urban fringe development. Such a model was developed from tests in two North Carolina cities, utilizing landowner and property information generally available in public records or in the planner's files. Utilizing data on how long the land had been held prior to the start of the study period, whether or not the owner lived on the land, whether or not the owner was retired, whether the ownership was single or joint, the assessed value of the land, and the amount of urban development surrounding the parcel, the model was able to classify from 60 to 80 percent of the sample parcels correctly as being “sold” or “held” over the 10-year test period.

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