Measuring the Impact of Free Trade: Local Analysis versus Regional and National Models

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Abstract
This paper presents a method to evaluate the sectoral impact of the U.S.-Canada free trade agreement on local economies. This method is an alternative to national impact models whose sectoral rates are not attuned to the characteristics of local economies. The method identifies the winners and losers of the implementation of free trade in a static framework. Then, taking into account the past experience of the region under the stress of tariff reductions, it uses the effective rotation of jobs to infer the likelihood that in the long run local firms will either rationalize production and become more export-oriented or disappear.
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