A Population Model for Cinnabar Moth and its Food Plant, Ragwort

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Abstract
The interactions of populations of the cinnabar moth [Tyria jacobaeae] and its food plant, ragwort [Senecio jacobaea], at Weeting Heath [England, UK] between 1966-1977 were modeled. The proposed model is built from 3 submodels describing:the effects of rainfall and defoliation by cinnabar on the number and biomass of ragwort; the effects of food supply and adult density on the moth''s fecundity; and the effects of larval density on mortality. Starting with a known population of plants and of cinnabar eggs, together with an estimate of the percentage of plants flowering in the 1st yr, reasonable estimates of plant and moth numbers may be obtained from the model, provided rainfall data are available for each subsequent year.

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