Evaluation of a Management Model for Second-Generation European Corn Borer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) for Use in Kansas

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Abstract
A European corn borer (ECB), Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner), decision model developed from published literature was evaluated. Model strengths and weaknesses were determined using sensitivity analysis and field validation data. Correspondence between the model-described oviposition period and actual oviposition period was high in 1982. The degree of correspondence in 1983 was not as high, but final treatment recommendation was unaffected in most cases. Model-predicted yield reductions underestimated field losses and affected the reliability of model recommendations. The model was equally sensitive to changes in mean number of egg masses per plant, mean number of eggs per mass, percent ECB survivorship, estimated corn yield, market value of corn, and percent control. Changes in chemical cost and application cost did not influence model output as much as the other variables. The model was most sensitive to an improper estimation of the proportion of oviposition that had been completed at the time an egg-mass sample was collected. Skewing the triangular oviposition period toward termination of oviposition resulted in an increased predicted larval density. The control decision was affected only by changes in triangle skewness, when the economic and biological conditions resulted in a cost/benefit ratio near one. Extending the base length of the oviposition period had only a minor influence on the resulting control decision, regardless of cost/benefit ratio.