Further Developments in Indirect Mortality Estimation

Abstract
A variety of indirect estimators of mortality: survival of children by marriage duration of mother, survival of 1st spouse by marriage duration and by age, maternal orphanhood and survival of siblings, are investigated by the use of a wide range of model fertility and mortality situations. Survival probabilities are then related by regression analysis to the proportions with a particular characteristic, to yield an equation which can be used to estimate the survival probability in a population. Maternal orphanhood and survival of 1st spouse by age are useful, and the new developments are only simplifications of the existing methodology. Survival of 1st spouse by duration of marriage, and survival of siblings, are new methods which have yet to be justified by field experience. The features common to all indirect mortality estimation procedures are outlined, and the direction future developments may take in response to gradually improving data quality is suggested.