WORLD ENERGY DEMAND AND CRUDE OIL PRICES TO THE YEAR 2000

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Abstract
This paper takes an overall look at world energy demand forecasts contained in the recent literature. From the ‘consensus’ data the paper suggests a non‐communist world primary energy demand in 2000 of about 9,000 million tonnes oil equivalent. The focus then shifts to the demand for, and supply of, OPEC oil and it is argued that persistent excess demand will characterise this market for the remainder of the century. Observation of models of OPEC pricing behaviour suggests they are poor reflections of real world oil markets. As such, judgement rather than explicit modelling is used to suggest a world crude oil scenario in which oil prices rise at 10% p.a.