Forecasting Political Risk

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Abstract
An applied procedure is preserved in this paper which has been used to forecast some of the political risks ars oil company faces from investment in an overseas developing country, e.g., expropriation, taxation, price and production controls. The procedure makes use of a panel of experts, but requires, their estimates to be formulated in a way that takes explicit account of the precursive conditions for each of the adverse actions that the host country could take. A Bayesian method is used to derive the composite probabilities, for the political risk events under consideration and a Cross-Impact Analysis then provides s means of overall scenario generation.

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