Commodity cycles as random processes

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Abstract
Cyclical behaviours of hog production in centrally planned and market economies are shown to be quite similar in terms of variability and cycle length. A possible explanation can be made in terms of some simple models that incorporate a form of rational expectations, a lagged production function, and some particular types of random shocks. After presenting a family of such models, the special conditions linking such models to actual production behaviour are analyzed.

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