A Model of Fire Selection for Serotiny in Lodgepole Pine

Abstract
Lodgepole pine in the northern Rocky Mountains exhibits two cone types, one that opens at maturity and one that is opened only by heat exceeding 45 C (serotinous). Cone serotiny probably is a genetic adaptation to fire with 1-locus, 2-allele control. Despite a history of repeated fires in the northern Rockies, the frequency of the open-cone phenotype remains high. Simulations suggest that observed phenotype frequencies have been produced by a selection regime in which the average selection coefficients have been 0, or very close to 0 with a high variance. This suggests fire patterns variable in time or in time and space. Certain characteristics of lodgepole pine ecosystems influence these patterns, and thus play a role in maintaining the cone-type polymorphism.