Partial Reform Equilibrium, Chinese Style

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Abstract
Incomplete financial reform in China is puzzling because Premier Zhu Rongji, a seemingly promarket technocrat, was largely insulated from explicitly rent-seeking pressure and leftist ideology when he carried out a massive restructuring of Chinese banks in 1997. Yet at the end of his tenure as premier, the financial sector continued to channel the bulk of savings toward the state. Given the complexity of Zhu's policies, we cannot begin analyzing them if we conceive reform as a neat, coherent policy shift. In this article, competing hypotheses of policy change are tested on Zhu's financial “reform,” which is conceptualized as a bundle of discrete policies, each having different and at times contradictory impact on the economy. With this conceptualization, banking centralization, the Herculean efforts to digest nonperforming loans, and stagnation in interest rate and private banking reform can best be understood as a coherent political survival strategy.