New Method for Prediction of Extreme Wind Speeds

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Abstract
The problem of extreme wind prediction for determination of design wind speed is considered. Drawbacks of the presently used method based on the classical extreme-value theory are pointed out, and a step toward better statistical treatment of data is presented. The new procedure, which is based on estimating the tail of a probability distribution, forms a powerful and flexible class of alternatives to the traditional methods. Here, rather than the annual maxima, all the large values are included in the analysis, regardless of their occurrence time. For the parametric family of distributions involved (which take only three forms, like the classical extreme-value theory), the available estimating methods are described, and an illustrating example is presented using a set of published data. The general advantages of the procedure over the subsample method developed by Gumbel are examined.

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