Childhood Mortality Estimates Using the Preceding Birth Technique: Some Applications and Extensions

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Abstract
The Preceding Birth Technique has proved to be a simple and effective way of estimating mortality during the first two years of life when the question on the survival of the preceding child is asked at the time of a subsequent delivery. This article shows first that earlier worries about significant biases in the estimates are unfounded. Amongst the possible sources of bias considered are: the link between birth-interval length and child survival; the effects of birth intervals differing from 30 months; and the contribution of other systematic biases, such as the omission of all reports on the survival of a woman's last child. Results from a trial in the maternity clinics in Bamako, Mali are presented to illustrate both practical aspects of the method and selection effects by age and parity. A strong association between the survival chances of the succession of children born to one mother emerges. The second part of the article describes how the method can be applied more widely by asking the key questions at times other than a subsequent delivery. Adjustment factors are developed to correct for the biases introduced when the sample includes only mothers whose last-born children are alive at interview.Finally, some examples are given of recent use of the question on the survival of the preceding child in household surveys.

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