Predicting Inshore Whale Abundance — Whales and Capelin off the Newfoundland Coast

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Abstract
Inshore abundance of baleen whales along the Newfoundland coasts changed considerably during the period 1973–83. In particular, large numbers of humpbacks were present along the northeast coast each summer between 1977 and 1980. This influx led to entrapment of whales in fishing gear. Counts of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), finback (Balaenoptera physalus), and minke (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) whales during standard surveys along the coast are used as indices of inshore abundance, and are related to the year-class strengths of capelin (Mallotus villosus), their major food in the Newfoundland region. Whales are found inshore when there are few immature capelin offshore. Minke whale distributions seem more closely related to the abundance of 1- to 2-yr-old, immature capelin, but humpback and finback whales are found inshore with low abundances of 2- to 3-yr-old, mainly immature capelin. We suggest that estimates of capelin year-class strength predicted from abiotic variables can be used to predict inshore whale abundance, at least 1 yr in advance. The extreme influx of humpbacks of the late 1970s is unlikely to recur in the short term. The analysis suggests that finback populations in the area are declining.