On Future Population

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Abstract
Population projections as officially published show the consequences of a set of assumptions on births, deaths and migration. Population forecasts are unconditional statements of what the population of a given area at some future date will be, preferably in the form of a probability distribution. Methods for projections, and the problems in applying them to forecasting, are described. Demographic forecasting is seen as the search for functions of population that are constant through time, or about which fluctuations are random and small. The possibilities for such functions are described as well as the results of their application to United States and world populations.

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