A stochastic model for the presence/absence of readings in Niðrstigningar Saga

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Abstract
We consider the problem of reconstructing a stemma for five extant manuscripts of the Ni?rstigningar Saga. The method proposed uses a simple stochastic model to check the plausibility of different suggested trees. The model is based on presence/absence recordings for readings in the documents. It is shown that the model can reproduce the numerical variation of the recordings to within reasonable accuracy. The model shows how the particular tree‐structure is reflected in the frequency distribution of the ‘profiles’. It also gives estimates for the rate of loss of readings. Furthermore it is suggested how to infer the existence of lost documents from the estimated loss probabilities and how to estimate the size of lost texts. We also briefly discuss how different assumptions on the rate of ‘creation’ (the amount of readings added by a particular scribe) will force the investigator to accept different stemmas.

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