Maximum Likelihood Multivariate Calibration

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Abstract
Two new approaches to multivariate calibration are described that, for the first time, allow information on measurement uncertainties to be included in the calibration process in a statistically meaningful way. The new methods, referred to as maximum likelihood principal components regression (MLPCR) and maximum likelihood latent root regression (MLLRR), are based on principles of maximum likelihood parameter estimation. MLPCR and MLLRR are generalizations of principal components regression (PCR), which has been widely used in chemistry, and latent root regression (LRR), which has been virtually ignored in this field. Both of the new methods are based on decomposition of the calibration data matrix by maximum likelihood principal component analysis (MLPCA), which has been recently described (Wentzell, P. D.; et al. J. Chemom., in press). By using estimates of the measurement error variance, MLPCR and MLLRR are able to extract the optimum amount of information from each measurement and, thereby, exhibit superior performance over conventional multivariate calibration methods such as PCR and partial least-squares regression (PLS) when there is a nonuniform error structure. The new techniques reduce to PCR and LRR when assumptions of uniform noise are valid. Comparisons of MLPCR, MLLRR, PCR, and PLS are carried out using simulated and experimental data sets consisting of three-component mixtures. In all cases of nonuniform errors examined, the predictive ability of the maximum likelihood methods is superior to that of PCR and PLS, with PLS performing somewhat better than PCR. MLLRR generally performed better than MLPCR, but in most cases the improvement was marginal. The differences between PCR and MLPCR are elucidated by examining the multivariate sensitivity of the two methods.