Prediction of Total Phosphorus Concentrations, Chlorophyll a, and Secchi Depths in Natural and Artificial Lakes

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Abstract
A model for the prediction of total P was developed and tested using data on 704 natural and artificial lakes including 626 lakes in the USA Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Eutrophication Survey. A statistical analysis showed that the best estimate for the sedimentation coefficient (.sigma.) in the Vollenweider equation was .sigma. = 0.162(L/z)0.458 for natural lakes and .sigma. = 0.114(L/z)0.589 for artificial lakes where L is the areal P loading rate (mg .cntdot. m-2 .cntdot. yr-1) and z is the mean depth (m). The model yields unbiased estimates of P concentrations over a wide range of lake types and has a 95% confidence interval of 31-288% of the calculated total P concentration. Other models are less precise. Though total P concentrations can be predicted equally well in natural and artificial lakes, predictions of algal densities and water transparency are less reliable in artificial lakes as the P chlorophyll and chlorophyll-Secchi depth relationships are less precise. This seems to be due to the influence of nonalgal particulate materials.

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