Metropolitan Growth and Decline in the United States: an Empirical Analysis

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Abstract
"Urban growth rates are documented for the largest United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas for the periods 1965-70 and 1975-80. The spatial pattern associated with these growth rates tends to reinforce the sunbelt-frostbelt dichotomy, as the majority of cities with positive migration rates for both time periods are located outside of the heavily industrialized Northeast and Midwest regions of the country. Two and three-group discriminant analyses indicate that manufacturing activity, local tax rates, and spending on education, are particularly important discriminators between growing and declining cities."