Hindcasting Monthly Runoff

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Abstract
Research was carried out to develop relatively simple low cost procedures for estimating chronological monthly runoff for the historical period before a gaging station was installed on the river but during which precipitation and temperature records are available. The method also supplies estimates of runoff during periods of missing records. The procedures are based on the equation for the water budget of a drainage basin which shows runoff to be a function of precipitation, water losses and the change in storage. It is shown that current and antecedent precipitation and temperature can be used as independent variables to account for the water loss and storage terms. The methods were tested by calibrating the models for the more recent years of records and then hindcasting runoff for earlier periods during which measured runoff was available for comparison.

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