The impact of fire on timber supply in Ontario

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Abstract
Results are presented for an assessment of the impact of fire on timber supply in the province of Ontario. Historical fire report data are used to develop statistical summaries of fire regimes in terms of annual fire occurrence and area burned by administrative district and region. A simple hypothetical jack pine forest is used to illustrate how forest level timber harvest scheduling models can be employed to assess the timber supply implications of fire management regimes. Although fire may have had a significant detrimental impact on timber supply in some parts of the Northwestern region during the 1976-88 period, the effectiveness of Ontario's forest fire management system is such that timber supply in most districts has not been significantly diminished by fire. The results of our timber supply analysis, and the fact that fire management also benefits public safety and reduces property loss, suggest forest fire management is profitable in Ontario. Key words: forest fire impact, timber supply, mathematical programming, Ontario