An external validity test of intended behavior: Comparing revealed preference and intended visitation in response to climate change

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Abstract
We compare revealed preference and survey response estimates of changes in National Park visitation behavior from climate change. The revealed preference model is estimated from a time-series regression analysis of past visitation as a function of historic weather variability. We find no statistical difference between the revealed preference regression estimates and intended behavior estimates from a visitor survey for the total number of National Park visits. Confidence intervals for the two models overlap, and the mean estimates of the change in visitation are within 12% of each other. The paper concludes with the implications for natural resource planners and managers who must frequently evaluate the effects of alternative policies before the selection of a preferred alternative, and also must plan for accommodating changes in visitor use.