The effects of demographic transition on the opportunity for selection: changes during the last century in Italy

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Abstract
The index of opportunity for selection proposed by Crow has been calculated for the Italian population during the last century. The evolution of its two components, the pre-reproductive mortality and the variance in fertility, has been also analysed and compared with similar data for the United States. The results clearly show the relevance of socio-economic changes to the evolution of selective patterns in our species; in particular the relative incidence of mortality and fertility to selection intensity: the total index has in fact been reduced by 75% during the last century, the relative amount due to fertility increasing from 57 to 89%. The probable different relevance of genetic factors in the two components has also been discussed.

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