Looking ahead with confidence: Cases of technological forecasts that failed are well known, yet careful use of forecasting techniques can help avoid misdirected R&D

1 March 1985

journal article
Published by Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) in IEEE Spectrum

Vol. 22 (3) , 76-81
https://doi.org/10.1109/mspec.1985.6370593

Abstract

The author maintains that enough data have been gathered to ensure that the proper use of forecasting methods will lead to reasonably accurate research and development (R and D) planning even if some initial errors are made. To plan an R and D project, two questions must be answered. These are: what types of technology are needed, and when will they be developed? Two types of forecasting, each with its own methods, are described which answer these questions. The first is called normative forecasting, the second exploratory forecasting. The two are complementary and are used together.

Keywords

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