Analysis and Modeling of the Variability Associated with UV Inactivation of Escherichia coli in Apple Cider

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Abstract
Raw data from validation studies of UV tubes used for nonthermal pathogen reduction in apple cider underwent comprehensive statistical analysis. Data from each tube that demonstrated at least a 5-log reduction of Escherichia coli ATCC 25922, a surrogate for E. coli O157:H7, in each of three trials were used in the analysis. The within- and between-tube variability was calculated for 70 tubes. The mean log reductions of the tubes fit a Beta distribution (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, 0.0246), and the between-replicate variability followed a logistic distribution (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, 0.0305). These two distributions can be used together to model UV cider treatment as part of an overall E. coli O157:H7 in cider risk assessment. Examples of codes from @RISK and Analytica to describe these distributions, such as one would find in a quantitative risk assessment, are included.

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