The prediction of steady‐state plasma phenobarbitone concentrations (following low‐dose phenobarbitone) to refine its use as an indicator of compliance.

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Abstract
1. A model for predicting the steady-state plasma concentration of phenobarbitone following low-dose phenobarbitone used as an indicator of compliance was derived using data for 10 healthy volunteers. 2. Each volunteer was given a single 30 mg oral dose of phenobarbitone and the pharmacokinetics were described. Subsequently, volunteers were given phenobarbitone 2 mg daily for 28 days and a further pharmacokinetic profile determined during and after this period. 3. An initial predicted estimate of steady-state plasma drug concentration was made using each volunteer's demographic details. This estimate was revised by Bayesian analysis using single timed samples (24, 48, 72 or 96 h) following the single dose. 4. The model was tested on a further 10 healthy volunteers given a single 8 mg dose and who were subsequently given 2 mg daily for 28 days. 5. The revised estimate of peak steady- state plasma phenobarbitone concentration utilising the 96 h post- single dose concentration (356 ng ml-1) was least biased (mean prediction error +/- 95% CI = 10.6 +/- 19.8 ng ml-1) and most precise (root mean square error +/- 95% CI = 28.3 +/- 19.0 ng ml-1). In all cases the peak or trough steady-state drug concentration was within 13% of the predicted value. 6. The model reflected compliance accurately in a further eight volunteers with simulated partial (two-thirds) compliance. 7. The use of a predictive model using Bayesian analysis to estimate expected steady-state plasma phenobarbitone concentrations could increase further the usefulness of low-dose phenobarbitone as an indicator of compliance.