Small-Sample Properties of Predictions from the Regression Model with Autoregressive Errors
- 1 June 1983
- journal article
- research article
- Published by JSTOR in Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Vol. 78 (382) , 258
- https://doi.org/10.2307/2288621
Abstract
Monte Carlo methods are used to examine the small-sample properties of various estimators of asymptotic prediction variance (APV) from the regression model with autoregressive errors. Two practical estimators of APV, one of which includes terms reflecting parameter estimation and one of which excludes these terms, are compared to the mean squared error of prediction for regression models with different autocorrelation of the errors, different sample sizes, and different period-ahead predictions. The inclusion of terms reflecting the estimation of parameters is found to be worthwhile, particularly in small samples.Keywords
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