Physicians' Outcome Predictions for Elderly Patients: Survival, Hospital Discharge, and Length of Stay in a Department of Internal Medicine

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Abstract
In order to study physicians' ability to predict survival, site of living after discharge, and length of stay in a hospital department of internal medicine, five physicians rated a total of 156 patients 65 years of age and older, who had been admitted due to acute illness. Predicted and observed outcome were compared. The results showed no relation except with regard to predicted and observed discharge to own home. Inter-rater reliability was found to be low except with regard to discharge to own home. This study shows that the physicians had difficulties in predicting survival or death in the ward, site of living after discharge, other than to own home, and length of stay in the ward. In order to increase the knowledge about elderly with acute illness and improve planning of individual care, it is desirable to develop reliable and valid instruments for clinical prediction of outcome for elderly persons in short-term hospital care.

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