Prediction of Resumption of Drinking in Posttreatment Alcoholics

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Abstract
The ability of five factors (depressive symptomatology, neuropsychological performance, psychosocial maladjustment, previous treatment history, and childhood attention deficit disorder symptomatology) to predict relapse was examined in a follow-up experimental design. Fifty-eight male and 45 female alcoholics were interviewed immediately following release from inpatient treatment units. Fourteen months later, 41 subjects (41%) were classified as resumers; 62 (59%) were abstainers. Resumers showed significantly poorer scores than abstainers on all five of the predictor variables. Discriminant function analysis resulted in 75% correct classification of resumers and abstainers (chi 2 = 22.1, p less than .001). Stepwise multiple regression resulted in isolation of depressive symptomatology as the best single predictor of relapse.