Energy Demand Forecasting: Prediction or Planning?
- 1 January 1976
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of the American Institute of Planners
- Vol. 42 (1) , 4-15
- https://doi.org/10.1080/01944367608977700
Abstract
Energy demand forecasting has become an arcane ritual in which the future is implicitly planned by means of the self-fulfilling projections of special interest groups. Future demand is usually projected to outstrip future supply, thus necessitating rapid expansion of energy production. Under the guise of scientifically predicting the future, special interests are in fact shaping it to their own advantage. Legislators and citizens need to be aware of the assumptions and logical pitfalls of forecasting so that they cannot be bluffed by a technical facade that hides a logic often on a par with the ancient Greek practice of foretelling the future by contemplating chicken entrails. This study attempts to provide such an awareness of the limits and biases of energy demand forecasting and suggests that shaping a desired future is a more profitable activity than trying to outguess a preordained one. Some goals and policies are suggested.Keywords
This publication has 4 references indexed in Scilit:
- Social Institutions and Nuclear EnergyScience, 1972
- What’s Wrong with Economics?Published by Springer Nature ,1972
- Predicting Best with Imperfect DataJournal of the American Institute of Planners, 1968
- Plan or Projection: An Examination of the Use of Models in PlanningJournal of the American Institute of Planners, 1960