Simulation of North Atlantic Decadal/Multidecadal Winter SST Anomalies Driven by Basin-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

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Abstract
The North Atlantic winter sea surface temperature anomaly (Tsa) response to anomalous surface atmospheric circulation anomalies that vary over decadal and short-term inter-decadal periods is simulated for 1950 through 1992. Anomalous ocean variability is driven by adding monthly COADS-derived anomalous fields of vector wind stress and wind speed to the climatological annual cycle forcing. A simple model is derived relating winter Tsa to the integrated atmospheric forcing present earlier in time that is responsible for its existence. The basin- scale structure of forced winter Tsa patterns depends on the structure of the atmospheric forcing along with regional differences in the dominant mixed layer processes that generate Tsa. For example, when the atmospheric subtropical high and subpolar low pressure systems are simultaneously strong, enhanced flow around, and baroclinic adjustments within, the subtropical gyre results in anomalously warm water in the Gulf Stream region off the U.S. East Coast.... Abstract The North Atlantic winter sea surface temperature anomaly (Tsa) response to anomalous surface atmospheric circulation anomalies that vary over decadal and short-term inter-decadal periods is simulated for 1950 through 1992. Anomalous ocean variability is driven by adding monthly COADS-derived anomalous fields of vector wind stress and wind speed to the climatological annual cycle forcing. A simple model is derived relating winter Tsa to the integrated atmospheric forcing present earlier in time that is responsible for its existence. The basin- scale structure of forced winter Tsa patterns depends on the structure of the atmospheric forcing along with regional differences in the dominant mixed layer processes that generate Tsa. For example, when the atmospheric subtropical high and subpolar low pressure systems are simultaneously strong, enhanced flow around, and baroclinic adjustments within, the subtropical gyre results in anomalously warm water in the Gulf Stream region off the U.S. East Coast....

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