Probability Estimates of Recreation Demands

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Abstract
Estimates of potential future demands for outdoor recreation activities and resources suggest a need for designing techniques for assessing individualized recreation situations to assist the decision-making process. Recreation demands and resource values are important to this process. Statistical estimates of recreation demands and values in recent years have been somewhat limited by procedures which rely on ex post statements of past user activities. Expected use is not directly incorporated into the data, and therefore the resulting analysis is of restrictive value in estimating demands and resource values for unconstructed sites on planned resource developments. This paper reports an attempt to formulate a probabilistic model and technique for estimating recreationist usage of recreation sites. The model utilizes distance and site size to formulate probabilities of usage by recreationists from various origins or cities. The data generated from the model can be of a form applicable to current methodologies used in making statistical estimates of recreational demands. Application of the model is made to a localized boating situation as a means of illustrating the model.

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