The Current Status and Perspectives of Fissile Material Availability in the World through the Year 2000

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Abstract
Using a realistic evaluation of the likely develop-ment of commercial nuclear power, it is projected that some 428 000 MW(electric) of capacity will be in operation by the year 2000 in noncommunist countries. The availability of fissile material to support this program primarily hinges on the viability of two main industries, namely, the production of natural uranium and enrichment.The demand for natural uranium corresponding to this nuclear program is projected to amount to some 940 000 metric tons of uranium (MTU) through the end of the century. Currently defined reserves in the lower cost of recovery category (i.e., up to $80/kgU) amount to 1.75 million MTU so that such reserves can more than adequately cover needs. When the category of reasonably assured resources of some 550 000 MTU are also taken into account, needs can be covered well into the first half of the next century. There is currently a significant overcapacity for the mining and milling of uranium, and presently definable capacity...

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