Initial UK public reaction to avian influenza: Analysis of opinions posted on the BBC website

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Abstract
In February 2007, avian influenza arrived in the UK. Following evidence of illness at a turkey farm in Suffolk, around 160,000 birds were slaughtered and poultry movement controls were imposed. Given past food crises (e.g. BSE), it was clearly important to predict UK public response: for example, was mass panic imminent, or would the public respond calmly? Unfortunately, there is currently no theory that enables accurate prediction of public response to novel hazards or to novel manifestations of old hazards (Hawkes and Rowe in press Hawkes, G. and Rowe, G. in press. A structured review of qualitative research on the nature of perceived risk: Trends and omissions. Journal of risk research, [Google Scholar] ). Furthermore, the speed of the outbreak, and the lack of academic preparedness, undermined social scientists' ability to acquire significant timely data on public perceptions in order to aid theory development or inform policy making. Analysis of initial public opinion is, however, possible, thanks to the recording of responses to open questions about this incident posted on the British Broadcasting Corporation's (BBC) website. In this paper we: (a) justify the relevance and importance of this data, irrespective of deficiencies in its ‘representativeness’; (b) provide a content analysis of the more than 3,000 responses, and; (c) summarize initial opinion. Results suggest that ‘the public's’ initial response largely comprised discontent in how government was managing matters and concern about current farming practices. Indeed, for many, past food scares served as a reference point for understanding the present crisis, providing lessons on issues such as industry greed and governmental/scientific incompetence and misinformation. It is, however, important to recognize that there are data limitations, which need validation through more controlled research processes.

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