Abstract
Stanley Hoffmann, Joseph Nye, and Karl Kaiser have all stressed the significance of the external environment in determining the attractiveness of a regional plan; Ernst Haas has acknowledged that he neglected this in his earlier model of the integrative process. I shall argue here 1) that a particular element in the external environment has been the key incentive for Sweden’s position in current negotiations for a Nordic customs union and connected economic package and 2) that an evaluation of this same external factor will be crucial for Norway’s and Denmark’s decision.

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