Morbidity in Valvular Heart Replacement: Risk Factors of Systemic Emboli and Thrombotic Obstruction

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Abstract
A study on a cohort of 839 patients with valvular heart replacement between June 1977 and May 1985 showed that the linearized rates of systemic emboli and thrombotic obstruction were 1.4/100 pts/year for Aortic Valve Replacement (AVR), 2.2/100 pts./year for Mitral Valve Replacement, and 3.00/100 pts./year for Double Valve Replacement (DVR). The 5-year free-from-thromboembolism (TE) survival was 95% for AVR and 92% for MVR. The hazard function (the instantaneous risk) for TE peaked in the first six months after operation for AVR and MVR. Another analysis using the Cox regression model to estimate risk factors of systemic emboli and thrombotic obstruction pinpointed two factors in the AVR group: presence of aortic regurgitation (AR) and age at operation. In the MVR group the sole predictor covariate was sex of the patients, with a higher hazard for females. Our results underline the importance of patient-related factors besides the type of prosthesis as predictors of morbidity from TE.

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