Stochastic Modelling of Temperature Variations with a View Towards Weather Derivatives
- 1 March 2005
- journal article
- other
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Applied Mathematical Finance
- Vol. 12 (1) , 53-85
- https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486042000271638
Abstract
Daily average temperature variations are modelled with a mean‐reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process driven by a generalized hyperbolic Lévy process and having seasonal mean and volatility. It is empirically demonstrated that the proposed dynamics fits Norwegian temperature data quite successfully, and in particular explains the seasonality, heavy tails and skewness observed in the data. The stability of mean‐reversion and the question of fractionality of the temperature data are discussed. The model is applied to derive explicit prices for some standardized futures contracts based on temperature indices and options on these traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).Keywords
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