A stochastic model of the land conversion process

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Abstract
Drewett J.R. (1969) A stochastic model of the land conversion process: An interim report, Reg. Studies 3, 269–280. A conceptual framework is used for the description and identification of the physical and economic forces which operate during the rural to urban land conversion process. Using a continuous-time, discrete-space model based on the Markov assumption, the suburbanization process is simulated as a pure “market” process, including the probability of the occurrence of random events. The residual derived from comparing these expected events with actual events is used as a sampling frame for a random selection of actual behavioural decision-making units of residential and industrial growth. The hypothesis that the residual is attributable to institutional controls is tested. This type of methodology of working at two geographic scales allows basic postulates of a process to be defined from which empirically verifiable conclusions can be deduced. In this way it should be possible for urban systems research to contribute both to our understanding of the processes involved and to the development of techniques of simulation and forecasting. This interim report concludes with some tentative observations and the direction of the next phase of research is outlined.

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