For Electronic Journals, Total Downloads Can Predict Number of Users

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Abstract
Results from two multiple regression models involving HighWire journal subscriptions in 2003 for 16 participating universities in the United States, United Kingdom, and Sweden indicate a highly predictive relationship between the number of article downloads and the number of users—meaning that the size of a user population can be estimated by just knowing the total use of a journal. The relationship is consistent over time and across institutions and appears to be unrelated to the subject, size, or popularity of a journal. It is not consistent across publishers, however, suggesting that an "interface effect" may exist. The development of a Project COUNTER standard to deal with extreme or abnormal journal usage is necessary if we wish to compare the performance of journals across publishers.