SIMULATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER BALANCES IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES

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Abstract
Climate change is simulated using a stochastic weather generator model forced to simulate an increase in temperature of 2.5°C and in precipitation of 10 percent over a 50-year period. Output from the climate simulations are input into a water balance model. Simulations are performed for five climate divisions along a transect from semiarid western Kansas to humid eastern Missouri. Results show that even under a scenario of increasing precipitation all divisions suffer decreased summer soil moisture, with the driest divisions in Kansas suffering the largest decrease. Total runoff decreases in all divisions with the largest percentage decrease occurring in central Kansas. The largest absolute decreases in total runoff, however, occur in the humid climates. The increase in the water deficit in the drier divisions is more than twice that of the humid divisions. When attempting to detect the climate change signal in hydroclimatic variables, temperature and potential evapotranspiration are the most sensitive while annual runoff is not useful as a potential indicator of change.