A Constant-Work Model for Student Attendance and Enrollment

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Abstract
This paper develops a model of undergraduate student attendance that relies on five parameters, one of these being a parameter of total work, w, required to complete the degree. An enrollment forecasting method consistent with these attendance patterns is developed and compared with data for the period 1961–1966 and a cohort of 2,126 and 3,298 freshmen entering in the Fall semesters of 1955 and 1960, respectively. Under the assumptions of the model, the probability of graduation is shown to be the wth power of the conditional probability of successful completion of a unit of work, given that a student drops out or attends and successfully completes a unit of work.

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