A Method for Estimating HIV Transmission Rates among Female Sex Partners of Male Intravenous Drug Users

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Abstract
There are few data available on the dynamics of heterosexual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among women whose only risk factor is sexual contact with intravenous drug-using males. Unlike models which rely on unconfirmed estimates regarding sexual partner selectivity and contact rates between infected and uninfected populations, data from a survey conducted between November 1988 and February 1989 of 1,842 women in New York City provide empirical values for these variables which the authors use in a straightforward estimation model. The authors estimate that the number of new infections among women aged 15–44 years in New York City during 1988 was between 876 and 1,668 and that the number of women already infected through heterosexual contact with male intravenous drug users is between 5,390 and 10,230 among the 1,844,285 women in this age group. These conclusions indicate that male-to-female transmission in New York City is of substantial magnitude and that prevention efforts among male intravenous drug users and their female sexual partners must be appropriately directed.

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