Estimates of Past Climate at Paleolake Chad, North Africa, Based on a Hydrological and Energy-Balance Model

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Abstract
Modeling the combined hydrological and energy balances of Paleolake Chad and its drainage basin yields an estimate of at least 650 mm/yr for annual precipitation during portions of the early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 yr B.P.); the current rainfall in Chad Basin is 350 mm/yr. Two versions of the model are developed. The first version is one in which precipitation and lake area are linearly related. This version requires specification first of the area, net radiation, and Bowen ratio of the lake and second of the paleovegetation, net radiation, and Bowen ratio of the surrounding basin. In the second version of the model the ralationship between precipitation and lake area is nonlinear because the runoff ratio and Bowen ratio of the basin are made functions of precipitation. As the lake increases in area in response to increased precipitation, this version of the model allows for further increases in runoff (from the basin into the lake) as the vegetation changes from steppe to savanna and swamp. This nonlinear process may provide a partial explanation for the expansive paleolakes of the early Holocene. The results derived from both models are in good agreement with previously derived estimates of precipitation for North Africa during the early Holocene.